Omaha Odds: Hitting A Suited Flop

Proceeding with our PLO odds exploration, let’s use the ProPokerTools “count” feature (in the beta) again to find out how often our standard preflop range hits a suited flop, two-tone and monotone.

We will use the following range definition, using our PPT extra syntax:

4+hi 2g rd, 2p 22-TT, [JJ+][2-T]*, 2p JJ-AA, [Q+]‘[234+], A’[22-TT]*

with the addition of double-suited ace+big card ranges and mid-pair+connected cards:

(((ANNL) ! (AA**,9***)) & (*s*s*c*c,*s*s*d*d,*s*s*h*h,*c*c*d*d,*c*c*h*h,*d*d*h*h)),((AJ9L ! AA**) & (*s*s*c*c,*s*s*d*d,*s*s*h*h,*c*c*d*d,*c*c*h*h,*d*d*h*h)) 4566,5677,6788,7899,89TT,5667,6778,7889,899T,9TTJ,6678,7789,889T,99TJ,TTJQ

This range is 23.54% of all starting hands.

Hitting any flush or flush draw

Let’s take a 248 flop.

On this flop, with card removal, our range becomes 24.8% of all starting hands.

ProPokerTools tells us that the part of our preflop range containing at least two spades on this flop is 5.95% of all starting hands. In other words, we hit a flush draw on this two-tone flop about (5.95/24.8=) 24% of the time we saw this flop.

On the 248 flop, 20.1% of our range flops a flush.

If there is a suited ace on the board, there are less combos in our range that can flop a flush draw or a flush. With card removal, our preflop range is then 23.26% of all starting hands.

On the 2A8 flop, 21.2% of our range flops a flush draw.

On 2A8, 17.6% of our range flops a flush.

The percentages for a similar king-high flop (instead of ace-high) are 23.4% and 19.7%, respectively (our range is 23.96% of all starting hands).

Hitting the nut flush or nut flush draw

This time, we count the part of our range with the ace of spade and at least another spade.

On the 248 flop, 7% of our range flops the nut flush draw.

On 248, 6.6% of our range flops the nut flush.

Hitting the king-high flush or flush draw

The percentages are 3.9% for the king-high flush draw and 3.6% for the king-high flush.

If the ace of spade is on the board, the numbers are 4.6% and 4.2% respectively.

Hitting the nut/2nd nut flush or flush draw

If we want the nut or the 2nd nut flush/flush draw, the percentages are 11% for the flush and 10.1% for the draw.

Summary

About 1/4 of our range hits a flush/flush draw on a suited flop, and about 7% is the nuts or a draw to the nuts. This means that about 1/3 of our flushes/flush draws are to the nuts — and about half of them are (to) the 2nd nuts or better.